VTZ preparó una serie de publicaciones para comenzar 2021 relacionados con el webinar “Experiencias 2020, Expectativas 2021“, este post sobre las tendencias en el sector inmobiliario en México durante el 2020 y 2021 fue preparado por Juan Pablo García.
Puedes consultar el video sobre este tema aquí.
El sector inmobiliario es uno de los más afectados resulta ser un termómetro de la economía por las diversas áreas que activa como el área de servicios, hotelería, etcétera.
En 2020, observamos una diferencia positiva respecto a la crisis del 2009 el sector inmobiliario fue el causante en cierta o en gran medida de la crisis. Ahora, observamos al sector inmobiliario como una posible o gran solución a la crisis, principalmente debido a que la tasa de referencia está muy baja en países de primer mundo como EE. UU., Japón, entre otras, las tasas se encuentran negativas o en cero. Esto implica que haya un apetito por llevar a cabo esquemas de inversión inmobiliaria con cierta seguridad.
En México, la tasa de referencia al estar en niveles de 4 por ciento (lo que recibes por tu dinero en el banco), no es comparable a la rentabilidad que te otorga un inmueble dependiendo del tipo de inmueble o de industria es diferente la rentabilidad. Sin embargo, esto hace muy atractiva la inversión.
La pandemia de COVID-19 de 2020 definitivamente si causó efectos en el sector inmobiliario, pero se debe pensar cómo reconfigurar o democratizar en mayor medida la inversión inmobiliaria para acceder a un mercado más amplio, ya que definitivamente quien tenga un millón de pesos o un ticket más bajo no puede acceder a la inversión inmobiliaria. No obstante, mediante algunos vehículos como pool de renta, democratización de la inversión pueden comprar algún ticket que les dé rentabilidades ligadas a la rentabilidad de los bienes inmuebles.
En el sector inmobiliario, destaca que el área turística y hotelera fueron de los más afectados, junto con el retail o comercio. Estas áreas sufrieron muchas afectaciones por el tema del consumo.
Enseguida, podemos encontrar al área habitacional, por último, de las áreas del sector inmobiliario menos afectadas son el tema de oficinas e industrial, se prevé que la expectativa de recuperación sea muy lenta por el simple hecho de que al haber un decrecimiento en servicios, desempleo, esto implicará que haya menos oficinas que se seguirán rentando, aunque es el sector que menos impacto tuvo o de los que menos impacto tuvo junto con el industrial también su recuperación será lenta.
A diferencia de lo anterior, en el comercio o retail donde los restaurantes al reabrir sus puertas se van a recuperar muy rápido. En el aspecto comercial la gente espera que volvamos a la normalidad, dentro de lo posible para vivir experiencias de vida, volver a los centros comerciales que estos reconfiguren su servicio y que ofrezcan otro tipo de experiencias.
En el tema de vivienda hay un mercado muy cautivo que es el mercado residencial, es decir, viviendas con valor de entre un millón y medio tres millones de pesos en las grandes urbes de México como Tijuana, Querétaro, la zona del Bajío, Guadalajara o Monterrey. El mercado cautivo incentiva a buscar productos (viviendas) que pueda llegar a ese mercado.
Lamentablemente en la Ciudad de México existe un freno a las autorizaciones para desarrollo inmobiliario, esto provocó de cierta manera que los inversionistas voltearan a ver a estas ciudades emergentes o en crecimiento como Tijuana que tiene un desarrollo muy importante, así como Guadalajara y Monterrey. De igual manera, debemos buscar este tipo de productos y mercado que esté en estos rangos de millón y medio tres millones de pesos para redensificar las zonas de población o los centros de población ofreciendo un producto vertical que nos permita ofrecer una verticalización asequible al inversionista inmobiliario.
No debemos olvidar que las nuevas generaciones son las productivas, nos quedamos entre los baby boomers y la generación x, pero ellos ya no son la generación productiva. Actualmente, son los millennials, la generación z, entre otros.
Tenemos que buscar los esquemas que nos permitan llegar a ese tipo de mercado, el 65 % de las viviendas en renta son rentadas por millennials, esto nos da un parámetro para identificar qué es lo que están buscando, qué es lo que está comprando y sobre todo cómo podemos acceder a ese mercado.
El tema de rentas es muy atractivo se pueden establecer esquemas en los que se permita captar inversión para ofrecer un ticket de inversión más asequible que permita obtener rendimientos y que de igual manera permita acceder a este mercado que tiene cierta liquidez y que se ubica en estos rangos de precios. Por otra parte, la tasa hipotecaria es muy atractiva, actualmente está entre 7%-8%, esto hace que el inversionista o la persona que quiere comprar una vivienda acceder a ese tipo de mercado.
Debemos observar que consideramos que podría haber una recuperación importante en el sector inmobiliario en algunas áreas de forma más pausada que en otras, pero definitivamente es mercado de compradores aprovechando dichas oportunidades sobre todo que las tasas de interés están muy bajas, ello hace que la rentabilidad que te da un inmueble sea mucho más atractiva.
Inversión inmobiliaria, Perspectivas en el sector inmobiliario 2021, Sector inmobiliario en 2020
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