El pasado 8 de septiembre, dentro del término constitucional que al efecto se le concede, el Titular del Ejecutivo Federal remitió al Congreso de la Unión el Paquete Económico para el Ejercicio Fiscal 2021, para su estudio y aprobación.
Dicho paquete económico incluye los Criterios Generales de Política Económica, la Iniciativa de Ley de Ingresos de la Federación y el Proyecto de Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federación para el citado ejercicio fiscal.
Además, el Presidente de México presentó ante la Cámara de Diputados una iniciativa con Proyecto de Decreto por el que se reforman, adicionan y derogan diversas disposiciones de la Ley del Impuesto sobre la Renta, de la Ley del Impuesto al Valor Agregado, de la Ley del Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios así como del Código Fiscal de la Federación; estaremos atentos al desarrollo del proceso legislativo correspondiente y emitiremos un artículo informativo específico en el que comentaremos con detalle las reformas fiscales que en su caso sean aprobadas.
Independientemente de lo anterior, consideramos importante comentar algunos de los principales aspectos contenidos en el Paquete Económico para 2021.
Como era de esperarse, se prevé que durante 2021 la evolución de la pandemia continuará marcando el ritmo de la reanudación de actividades productivas y delineando la ejecución de la política económica.
En lo que parecen cifras demasiado optimistas, el Titular del Poder Ejecutivo Federal considera para las proyecciones de las finanzas públicas de 2021 una tasa de crecimiento del PIB del 4.6%, no obstante que reconoce un PIB negativo de -8.0% al cierre de 2020. La cifra considera un crecimiento del PIB y de la producción industrial de Estados Unidos de América de 3.8% y 3.4%, respectivamente. El Presidente de México señala que la estimación de crecimiento del PIB podría ajustarse dependiendo de la disponibilidad de una vacuna contra el COVID-19 que permitiera una reapertura económica en los primeros meses del año 2021.
Respecto al precio del petróleo, se estima un precio para la mezcla mexicana de exportación de $42.1 dólares por barril en 2021, lo cual representa un incremento del 21.67% en el precio respecto a los $34.6 dólares por barril estimados para 2020.
Además, los documentos presentados por el Ejecutivo estiman una inflación anual para 2021 de únicamente 3.0% y una tasa de interés de 4.0% qué considera un margen para reducciones adicionales, así como un tipo de cambio promedio y de cierre de $22.1 y $21.9 pesos por dólar, respectivamente.
A continuación, se muestran las principales variables macroeconómicas contenidas en los Criterios Generales de Política Económica:
Para el ejercicio fiscal 2021, se presupuestan ingresos por 6,295.74 miles de millones de pesos (mmp), superiores en 188 mmp respecto a los considerados en la Ley de Ingresos de la Federación de 2020.
La cantidad de 3,533.03 mmp, equivalentes al 56% del total de ingresos para 2021, corresponden a ingresos tributarios no petroleros, destacando, como es usual, la recaudación esperada por concepto de Impuesto sobre la Renta que representa el 54% de los referidos ingresos tributarios, mientras que el impuesto al consumo por excelencia, como lo es el Impuesto al Valor Agregado, representa el 27% respecto al total de ingresos tributarios.
A continuación, se presenta el desglose de los ingresos tributarios no petroleros considerados para el ejercicio 2021:
Se mantiene la disminución de multas por infracciones derivadas del incumplimiento de obligaciones fiscales federales distintas a las obligaciones de pago en función del momento en el que el contribuyente efectúe la autocorrección de las mismas, a excepción de las multas por declarar pérdidas fiscales en exceso.
Adicionalmente, se prevé dar continuidad a la reducción en un 40% de las multas por infracciones derivadas de incumplimiento de obligaciones fiscales distintas a las de pago detectadas a los contribuyentes mediante revisiones electrónicas.
Continúan los estímulos fiscales relacionados con la adquisición e importación para consumo final de diésel o biodiesel y sus mezclas que:
a) Se utilicen exclusivamente como combustible en maquinaria en general, excepto vehículos.
b) Se use en actividades agropecuarias o silvícolas.
c) Se destine exclusivamente al transporte público y privado de personas o de carga, así como el turístico.
En ese mismo sentido, continúa el estímulo fiscal destinado a quienes se dediquen exclusivamente al transporte terrestre público y privado, de carga o pasaje, así como el turístico, que utilizan la red nacional de autopistas de cuota, consistente en permitir el acreditamiento del 50% del gasto total erogado por ese concepto.
Finalmente, en materia de estímulos fiscales, se mantiene la exención del pago de derecho de trámite aduanero a las personas que importen gas natural.
Para 2021 se modifica la tasa de retención que deberán aplicar las instituciones financieras sobre el capital que da lugar al pago de intereses, para quedar dicha tasa en 0.97%.
Se conserva el apoyo otorgado a los contribuyentes de mínima capacidad administrativa que tributen en el Régimen de Incorporación Fiscal, manteniéndose en sus términos el esquema de beneficios y estímulos fiscales a efecto de facilitar el cálculo y pago del Impuesto al Valor Agregado, así como del Impuesto Especial sobre
Producción y Servicios.
El gasto neto total previsto en el Presupuesto de Egresos importa la cantidad de $6,295.74 miles de millones de pesos y evidentemente corresponde al total de los ingresos contenidos en la Ley de Ingresos de la Federación para 2021.
De acuerdo a lo señalado por el Presidente de México, la política de egresos en 2021 se enfocará principalmente a atender los programas sociales y reforzar la provisión de los servicios de salud en un contexto en el que prevalecerán los efectos de la pandemia, así como ejecutar diversos proyectos de inversión que detonen el desarrollo económico y social.
Cabe señalar que dentro de los Programas Sociales Prioritarios del Ejecutivo Federal, el que requiere el mayor presupuesto es el relativo a la Pensión para Adultos mayores, al que se destinarían 135,065 millones de pesos, como se observa a continuación:
Así mismo, dentro de los Proyectos de Inversión Prioritarios del Ejecutivo Federal, los que requieren el mayor presupuesto son los relativos al Tren Maya y al Aeropuerto Felipe Ángeles, a los que se destinarían un total de 57,602 millones de pesos, como se observa a continuación:
Con independencia de lo comentado anteriormente, sugerimos revisar íntegramente el Paquete Económico para 2021, con la finalidad de identificar otros temas que pudieran resultar de interés en cada caso particular.
Agradeciendo su atención, quedamos a sus apreciables órdenes para asesorarlos profesionalmente al respecto.
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