News

Acuerdo EEUU-China Fase 1 y Senado de EE. UU. Aprobó la Ley de Implementación del TMEC

17 Jan , 2020  

Acuerdo EEEUU China Fase 1 efectos para México, Comercio Internacional, Trading Room, Senado de EEUU aprueba TMEC

Descarga nuestro Boletín en PDF: Trading Room -17012020

Fase 1 del Acuerdo EEUU-China: Implicaciones para México

Este miércoles 15 de enero, China y los EE.UU. firmaron la Fase Uno del Acuerdo Comercial después de más de 18 meses de conflicto arancelario. Este Acuerdo especifica algunos cambios estructurales en la economía y comercio de China en temas como propiedad intelectual, transferencias de tecnología, agricultura, servicios financieros y moneda. A pesar de las reacciones optimistas de esta semana, la realidad es que se mantienen los aranceles del 20% y que no se verán resultados tangibles en el corto plazo, principalmente por el reto que implica para el país asiático la implementación de los compromisos en materia de propiedad intelectual y transferencia de tecnologías a nivel provincial y local.

 

China es uno de los principales destinos para las exportaciones mexicanas, entonces la pregunta obligada es:

 

¿Cuál será el impacto del acuerdo comercial para nuestro país?

 

Una de las principales preocupaciones de los analistas es que las autoridades chinas obliguen a las empresas a incrementar las compras de productos y servicios norteamericanos.

 

El Anexo 6.1 “Incrementos de Exportaciones Norteamericanas a China en los Próximos 2 Años” enlista bienes de manufactura a incrementar las importaciones: la maquinaria y unidades de procesamiento automático de datos, pistones de combustión interna, teléfonos y aparatos de recepción de voz, vehículos para el transporte de pasajeros, entre otros productos que México exporta exitosamente a China. En el listado de productos agrícolas, aparecen las carnes de cerdo y res congeladas, maíz, sorgo, aguacate, cerveza de malta y harinas de pescado, que también son las principales exportaciones agropecuarias a China.

 

Por otra parte, se espera que la rivalidad tecnológica entre los dos países siga creciendo, principalmente en el desarrollo de tecnologías militares, tecnologías sensibles, producción de semiconductores y estándares tecnológicos para 5G, Internet de las Cosas (IoT), entre otros temas que no han sido resueltos en las negociaciones sostenidas en los últimos meses.

 

Precisamente este viernes, el Buró Nacional de Estadísticas de China anunció que el PIB creció un 6.1% durante 2019, la menor tasa de crecimiento reportada desde hace 29 años en el país. Por lo que es de esperarse que las autoridades chinas continúen implementando políticas que aseguren el crecimiento económico y del mercado, y en específico aquellas que impulsen el desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías.

 

Por lo anterior, resultará necesario que México redefina en los próximos meses una agenda estratégica con China que le permita una mayor diversificación de sus exportaciones al país asiático, así como posicionarse estratégicamente en el reacomodo de las cadenas de valor que se lleva a cabo actualmente como consecuencia del conflicto comercial China – EE.UU.

Recuerda que VTZ tiene un Chinese Desk.

Link al texto del Acuerdo https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_United_States_And_China_Text.pdf

 

El Senado de EE.UU. Aprobó la Ley de Implementación del TMEC

Ayer, EE.UU. dio un paso crucial al aprobar la ley de implementación del TMEC en el Senado con 89 votos a favor y 10 votos en contra.  El paso que resta es que el Presidente de EE. UU. firme la la ley para completar el proceso de aprobación en EE. UU. Se informa que habrá una ceremonia de firma la próxima semana.

Este evento provocó reacciones positivas en la comunidad política y empresarial mexicana. El Presidente de México, AMLO, afirmó que el tratado “va a significar más confianza en México para la llegada de inversiones…”

Por su parte, la Secretaría de Economía y la Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores afirman que el TMEC coloca a México como socio comercial a la par de EE. UU. y Canadá, e inicia una nueva etapa de inversión y crecimiento para la región.

Está de más decir que solo queda pendiente la aprobación por parte de Canadá para que el acuerdo pueda entrar en vigor. Las dependencias mexicanas confían en que el Parlamento canadiense pronto ratificará el TMEC, que retomará sesiones hasta el 27 de enero.

Reserva la fecha: La Secretaría de Economía organizará un seminario sobre el TMEC que dará inicio el 12 de febrero y que estará abierto al público en general. En los próximos días se dará a conocer más información.

 

Fuente:

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/16/21067782/usmca-senate-vote-trump-nafta-2-0-canada-mexico

https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/el-senado-de-ee-uu-aprueba-el-tratado-entre-mexico-estados-unidos-y-canada?state=published

, , , , , , , , ,

English, News

Phase 1 of the Trade Deal between China and the US & USMCA – The Trading Room

17 Jan , 2020  

US China Trade Deal Phase 1 effects on Mexico, US senate approves USMCA implementation act

Download our Newsletter in PDF: Trading Room -17012020

Phase 1: USA-China Agreement Implications For Mexico

This Wednesday, January 15, China and the US signed the Phase One of the Trade Agreement after more than 18 months of tariff conflict. This Agreement specifies some structural changes in China’s economy and trade in issues such as intellectual property, technology transfers, agriculture, financial services, and currency. In spite of this week’s optimistic reactions, the reality is that 20% tariffs are maintained and that tangible results will not be seen in the short term, mainly due to the challenging implementation in China of the intellectual property and technology transfer agreements at the provincial and local level.

China is one of the main destinations for Mexican exports, hence, the obligated question is:

What will be the short-term impact of this Agreement for México

One of the main concerns for analysts is that in the following months Chinese authorities will force companies to increase purchases of US products and services. Annex 6.1 “Increases in US Exports to China Over 2 Years” lists manufacturing goods such as machinery and automatic data processing units, internal combustion pistons, telephones and voice reception devices, passenger transport vehicles, among other products that Mexico successfully exports to that country. In agricultural products, the list includes frozen pork and beef, corn, sorghum, avocado, malt beer and fishmeal, some of the main Mexican agricultural exports to China.

On the other hand, it is expected that the technological rivalry between the two countries will continue to grow, mainly in the development of military and sensitive technologies, semiconductor production, and technological standards for 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), among other issues that were not resolved in the negotiations.

This Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that GDP grew by 6.1% during 2019, the lowest growth rate reported for 29 years in the country. It is expected that the Chinese authorities will continue to implement policies that can maintain economic and market growth, and specifically those that drive the development of new technologies.

For all the above, in the coming months, it will be necessary for Mexico to redefine a strategic agenda with China that allows the country to further diversify its exports to the Chinese market, as well as strategically position itself in the current relocation of value chains that is happening as a consequence of the Chinese – US trade conflict.

Recall that VTZ has a Chinese Desk in Hong Kong.

Text of the agreement:

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_United_States_And_China_Text.pdf

US Senate Approves USMCA implementation Act

Yesterday, the US took a crucial step as the Senate approved the USMCA implementation act with 89  votes in favor and 10 votes against. The remaining step is for the US President to sign the act in order to virtually complete the US domestic approval process. It is reported that there will be a signing ceremony next week.

This event provoked positive reactions in the Mexican politician and business community. The Mexican President, AMLO, claimed that the treaty “means trust in Mexico so that investments can arrive…”

Meanwhile, the Mexican Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims that USMCA positions Mexico as a trading partner with USA and Canada, and starts a new phase for investment and growth in the region.

Needless to say, Canada is pending to approve USMCA so that the agreement can enter into force. The Mexican Ministries trust that the Canadian parliament will soon ratify USMCA, which will return to hold sessions until January 27th.

Save the Date: The Mexican Ministry of Economy will be organizing a seminar on USMCA that will commence on February 12th that will be open to the public. More information will be announced in the following days.

Source:

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/16/21067782/usmca-senate-vote-trump-nafta-2-0-canada-mexico

https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/el-senado-de-ee-uu-aprueba-el-tratado-entre-mexico-estados-unidos-y-canada?state=published

 

, , , , ,

English, News

USMCA developments and Mexico-China Business Forum – The Trading Room

20 Dec , 2019  

USMCA, Labor Attachés, Labor Law enforcement, Rapid Response Mechanism,

USMCA in a Week

A few days after the protocol amending USMCA was signed, a new controversy arose between Mexico and the USA at the weekend due to USMCA’s implementing act in the USA. 

In essence, Mexican negotiator, Jesus Seade, wrote a letter stating that Mexico considered that the legislation went “beyond” the protocol since the USA was considering to include “labor inspectors” in Mexico. 

In response, USTR mentioned that the USMCA’s authorized “domestic measures” such as having “Attachés”. In fact, US attachés currently operate in Mexico in different sectors or matters, such as agricultural, commerce, among others.  

How will the US Attachés function?

The existence of a maximum of 5 labor Attachés is planned, according to the USTR response and US legislation. The Attachés “will work with their Mexican counterparts, workers, and civil society groups on implementation of the Mexican labor reform, including by providing technical assistance and disbursing capacity building funds, and provide assistance to the new U.S. government interagency labor committee.” 

Undersecretary Seade thanked the “clarity” of USTR’s response, considered that the Attachées will be 90% harmless and pointed out that the Attachées would abide by Mexican law.

Rapid Response Mechanism

The Modification Protocol to USMCA provides for Facility-Specific Rapid Response Labor Mechanism, which will operate independently.

Our labor expert, Rafael Alday, prepared an alert (only available in Spanish), addressing this mechanism briefly.

Under this context, it is clear that Mexico will have comprehensive monitoring of compliance with labor laws, particularly on unions and collective bargaining rights. In the same vein, Ricardo Ramírez, a former member of the WTO Appellate Body, said that never before a system so intrusive and with strict surveillance of labor legislation in another country had been established.

A Strong First Step

On Tuesday, the USMCA implementation act was approved by the Committee on Ways and Means of the House of Representatives, meanwhile, the House approved the act yesterday. Now, the Senate needs to vote on the act, but this will occur after the impeachment process that US President Donald Trump is facing according to media outlets.

The Mexican Minister of Economy mentioned in Twitter that the US Senate will vote on January 2020.  

Sources:

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2019/december/ustr-responds-mexico-usmca

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/opinion/ricardo-ramirez-hernandez/t-mec-me-acabo-de-enterar

https://elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/camara-de-representantes-de-eu-ratifica-el-t-mec

 

Mexico-China Business Forum

This Monday, VTZ and Adrián Vázquez participated in the Mexico-China Economic and Commercial Cooperation Forum organized by the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (acronym COMCE) and the Chinese Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT). Detailed information about the plenary is available here.

 

Sources:

https://www.jornada.com.mx/ultimas/economia/2019/12/16/abriran-oficina-de-enlace-entre-empresarios-chinos-y-mexicanos-4595.html

 

Download in PDF:The Trading Room

, , , , , , , , , , ,